By CHRIS MFULA –
KENNEDY Musonda is among a few people who are happy with the daily disruption of electricity supply commonly referred to as load-shedding.
Since the power cuts started about a year ago, Mr Musonda says his charcoal business has been booming.
“The price of charcoal has almost doubled over the last one year and sales have also increased, business has never been better!” the 28-year old father of two said.
“I only hope that power blackouts will continue for a little longer because our sales will suffer once the current shortage of electricity is addressed,” said Mr Musonda, who buys his charcoal in bulk in Lusaka’s Kanyama Township for resale in smaller packages at Kabwata Estates.
Besides retailers like Mr Musonda, many others including people who actually produce the charcoal in Mumbwa District, are among those who have seized the opportunity brought by daily power cuts which last as long as eight hours.
But even as the charcoal and wood fuel business booms, addressing the energy shortfall and improving livelihoods of some people in the short-term, fears abound that the accompanying deforestation could worsen Zambia’s electricity crisis.
Zambia has approximately 50 million hectares of forest with an estimated deforestation rate of 250,000 to 300,000 hectares per year, government estimates indicate.
This has contributed to global warming, the increase in the Earth’s average surface temperature due to the effects of greenhouse gasses such as carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels and deforestation, which trap heat that would otherwise escape from the Earth.
Zambia’s geographic characteristics coupled with high poverty levels, makes it highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, the large-scale, long-term shift in this planet’s weather patterns resulting from the global warming alluded to above.
A report entitled Preparing for a Changing Climate, states that rising levels of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases have warmed the Earth and are causing very wide-ranging impacts, including drought and floods that Zambia is experiencing.
Some of these hazards, especially the droughts and floods have increased in frequency and intensity over the past few decades and have adversely impacted food and water security, water quality, energy and livelihoods of the people in both rural and urban communities.
Recent climate trends based on government records from 1960 to 2003 indicate that mean annual temperature has increased by 1.3 degrees since 1960, an average rate of 0.34 degrees per decade.
On the other hand, the mean rainfall over Zambia has decreased by an average rate of 1.9 mm per month or 2.3 per cent per decade since 1960.
Director of Energy in the Ministry of Energy and Water Development Oscar Kalumiana said Zambia’s energy mix currently comprises about 78 per cent wood fuel, 11 per cent electricity, 10 per cent petroleum products and while forms comprise 1 per cent.
Mr Kalumiana said in a presentation on Zambia’s Bio-energy Policy that the government wanted to encourage sustainable use of biomass resources through efficiency and the introduction of new sources of energy such as bio-fuels.
“Evidence in the past has shown that most urban people losing their jobs go into charcoal production as an alternative income generating source,” Mr Kalumiana said.
A study published in the October 2015 Open Journal of Forestry revealed that charcoal production is the top driver of deforestation in Zambia, mainly because of the high energy demand in urban areas and the socio-economic benefits for the thousands of actors along the production, distribution and marketing chain for charcoal.
Evidently, climate change is now a major threat to sustainable development in Zambia. The country is experiencing climate induced hazards like drought which has hit hydropower output cutting last year’s economic growth to 3.7 per cent from the initial projection of 7 per cent.
Fuel subsidies and emergency power imports to ensure that the economy does not grind to a halt are estimated to be costing Zambia about US$660 million annually, putting pressure on the budget.
Zambia’s power deficit rose to 1,000 megawatts (MW) from 700 MW in November as the country cut hydropower generation in major power stations, including the Kariba North Bank due to drought.
A 2007 study by the then Ministry of Tourism, Environment and Natural Resources, revealed that climate change would seriously undermine efforts to improve the livelihoods of Zambians if left unaddressed.
Ministry of Lands, Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Public Relations Officer, Diniwe Zulu said the government had not issued any charcoal producer a licence since August last year.
But the impact of climate change is still visible in the many problems that the dip in power generation has created.
For example, Zambian power companies and mining firms, the backbone of the country’s economy, in August agreed to cut power supply to the mines by 30 per cent due to the electricity shortage.
Yusuf Dodia of the Private Sector Development Association (PSDA) said the power shortage had negatively affected businesses with some reducing their working hours and others opting to use more expensive diesel generators.
Zesco Limited has cut electricity generation to a quarter of capacity at the Kariba hydropower plant due to low water levels and the power station is only generating 275 megawatts (MW) out of a total installed capacity of 1,080 MW, Zesco spokesman Henry Kapata said.
In all, Zambia is currently generating a total of 1,129 MW of electricity from its hydropower stations, including Kariba, Kafue Gorge and Victoria Falls out of its total installed capacity of 2,200 MW.
The Zambezi River Authority (ZRA), a company that watches over the Kariba Dam on behalf of Zambia and Zimbabwe, said water levels stood at 21 per cent of its capacity in the second week of April, less than half the quantity it held in the same period last year.
“We are yet to see the far-reaching effects of deforestation,” said Garry Nkombo, the chairperson of Zambia’s parliamentary committee on energy during a recent public debate on the power crisis.
(The author is former Times of Zambia Deputy News Editor)